With all the controversy surrounding the Bowl Championship Series standings, I've been thinking, what would it be like if computers decided who played in the NFL's big game at the end, or even worse, which teams made the playoffs?
Strength of schedule and the quality of opponents also vary greatly in the NFL, from each division to the next. The first-place and last-place schedule now affects only two games.
The difference is, NCAA Division I-A college football has 117 teams, and most teams play only 12 of them. In the NFL, every team plays 13 of 32 teams. That's why playoffs work for "us" and don't work for "them."
Just for punts, passes and kicks, here would be my top-12 NFL "SBCS" (the "S" stands for Super) heading into Week 12:
1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Tennessee
4. Carolina
5. Indianapolis
6. Dallas
7. Philadelphia
8. Seattle
9. St. Louis
10. Minnesota
11. Denver
12. Miami
GAME OF THE WEEK
San Francisco vs. Green Bay. OK, both teams are only 5-5 and need to have a strong stretch run to have a shot at the playoffs, but I have loved this matchup as a must-watch in its recent history. It's still a big game, only in a different sense. The Packers (5-5, 2nd North Division) have crept up to one game behind the Vikings (6-4, 1st North Division) in the NFC North, and the Seahawks (7-3, 1st West Division) and Rams (7-3, 2nd West Division) can both hear the rejuvenated 49ers (5-5, 3rd West Division) knocking in the NFC West.
The 49ers have found new life thanks to the play of Tim Rattay, who is calmly executing what Dennis Erickson wanted to do with his offense -- throw long downfield to set up the short running game. Jeff Garcia is more of a mad scrambler, who worked to get rid of the ball quickly to whoever was open, not necessarily Terrell Owens. Rattay, a prolific college passer, stays poised in the pocket and throws a better deep ball, much to Owens' delight.
The Packers also have a quarterback who can make some throws. When they win, it seems as though Brett Favre has a modest game, with Ahman Green running them home (see Tampa Bay last week). Favre still can win a game for the Packers if they must air it out often, and his offensive line will give him plenty of chances to do so against the frequently blitzing 49ers.
Look for an exciting game, considering the Packers' defense also is vulnerable -- it will have a hard time containing both Owens and Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow on the ground. The Packers have surprisingly struggled at Lambeau Field (2-3) this season, but the tundra will become only more frozen with each remaining week, and Green's speed and Favre's arm will make the difference this week. Packers 24, 49ers 17.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAME OF THE WEEK
NY Giants (4-6, 3rd East Division) at Tampa Bay. Forget Keyshawn being gone. Has anyone found these teams' respective mojos? The Giants' vaunted offense has been daunted, and the Bucs' big-time defense is more talk than action. Injuries have been a factor for both teams, but unlike the Eagles (7-3, 2nd East Division) and Patriots (8-2, 1st East Division), neither team has been able to overcome.
The only significance this Monday nighter might have is Tiki and Ronde Barber getting plenty of face time. Like the Barbers and those Coors Light gals, these teams are identical twins -- in the fact that they were once promising Super Bowl contenders that are now scratching for survival.
The Bucs' awesome sack streak came to an end last week, so they will be itching to go after one of the league's shakiest offensive lines. Kerry Collins has been interception-prone when throwing often in coverage, which plays right into the hands of the Bucs' cover 2. Also look for new Bucs starting wideout Joe Jurevicius to bust out healthy against his former team. Buccaneers (4-6, 3rd South Division) 20, Giants 13.
FOX OF THE WEEK
Carolina at Dallas. What were you expecting here, the name of Lisa Guerrero? (Besides, she no longer is affiliated with Fox Sports) No, this categorical tribute to the website where this column appears refers to the Panthers (8-2, 1st South Division)' John Fox, who has been, dare I say, Parcellsian with his coaching this season.
For those of you who missed Carolina's 8-2 start, it goes like this: Run the ball with Stephen Davis, make the most of scoring opportunities, play great defense. Parcells used a same philosophy to take Super Bowl 25.
The old Quincy Carter has reappeared, thanks in part to playing some tough defenses in recent weeks, including last week's shutout at New England. The Panthers' pass rush will be relentless against him, and Davis should set up John Kasay just enough times to let the visitors grind out one by a field goal. Panthers 13, Cowboys (7-3, 1st East Division) 10.
SPURRIER OF THE WEEK
Washington at Miami. The plus for Ball Coach is that he gets to coach another game in Florida this week. The minus is that it isn't in Gainesville against Vanderbilt.
Credit him for handing off the play-calling duties on offense, which has seen relatively good success the past two weeks. The problem is, he still has a nondescript running game and his team's run defense isn't much better.
The Dolphins (6-4, 2nd East Division) got Ricky Williams back on track last week, and they will pound him away on another Sunday night (remember that Buffalo game?). Patrick Ramsey is getting more banged-up with every game, and he will have a tough time making plays against Miami's consistent pass rush and tough secondary. Dolphins 23, Redskins (4-6, 4th East Division) 19.
REMATCH OF THE WEEK
Oakland at Kansas City. The Raiders (3-7, 3rd West Division) made things interesting in the teams' Week 7 Monday night meeting, as Tim Brown came up one yard short of the goal line as time expired in the Chiefs (9-1, 1st West Division)' 17-10 win. Of course, Marques Tuiasosopo threw the pass to Brown, and now he's out for the season, along with Rich Gannon.
Rick Mirer is left as the No. 1 QB, which is exactly why the Raiders have turned to a power running game with Tyrone Wheatley to carry their offense. Following what the Bengals (5-5, 1st North Division)' Rudi Johnson did, Wheatley can help the Raiders stay with their archrivals by just pounding the ball straight ahead.
The Chiefs aren't a perfect team -- both in terms of record and strengths/weaknesses. They will, however, refocus and rebound after their disappointing all-around performance at Cincy and complete a season sweep of Oakland. Chiefs 28, Raiders 20.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh at Cleveland. It's ironic that these cities known for gritty blue-collar work ethic have professional football teams that now are enamored with the glamour of the pass.
I've been waiting for the Browns (4-6, 3rd North Division) to make the stat sheet pretty with Kelly Holcomb throwing to Quincy Morgan, Dennis Northcutt and Andre' Davis, and they finally delivered their most complete performance last week. Granted, that was Arizona and this is Pittsburgh, but the current Steel Curtain has been an invisible wall of late.
Tommy Maddox throwing to Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El hasn't been as exciting as we all thought this season, leaving the team at 3-7 -- which is amazingly only two games short of the AFC North lead. The Steelers (3-7, 4th North Division) still can make a run at it with three division games left. Of course, they need to start that run sometime. If they don't win, however, this is the last time I give them the benefit of everyone else's doubt. Steelers 27, Browns 26.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Seattle over Baltimore. This is the mildest of mild upsets, but considering the way the 'Hawks have played on the road in places other than Arizona this season, this would be a huge accomplishment. To be the better birds in this pivotal clash of teams clinging to first place, they will need more consistent play from their wide receivers.
Jamal Lewis still is plowing through run defenses, but his recent case of fumble-itis has hampered a Ravens (5-5, 2nd North Division) offense that has limited passing potential. Todd Heap's banged-up knee and rookie quarterback Kyle Boller being lost for the season has made things worse.
Brian Billick has coached and succeeded through worse, and will keep feeding the ball to Lewis and rely on his defense to win games. Mike Holmgren needs to get his team better prepared for the road, and I just think this is the game in which Matt Hasselbeck will turn around his misfortunes away from Seattle.
Lewis will get his 100 yards, but Hasselbeck just needs to make one or two big plays to get his team on the sunny side of the scoreboard. Seahawks 17, Ravens 14.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Denver over Chicago. What a difference a Jake makes. The Broncos (6-4, 2nd West Division) called in a healthy Plummer to repair their clogged-up offense last week, and he responded. His favorite target, ageless wonder Shannon Sharpe, went off for three scores, further cementing his place as the most successful tight end in league history.
I had questions about the Broncos' prospects this season, but most of them have been answered thanks to Plummer's revitalization and the team's resiliency to stay in playoff position despite a rash of injuries. They are focused and ready to make a run, and will finish a mile high above their Sunday visitors. Broncos 31, Bears (3-7, 4th North Division) 13.
REST OF THE WEEK
Detroit at Minnesota. Steve Mariucci is making the most of his injury-filled roster, which, unfortunately for him, doesn't amount to much. The Vikings' once 6-0 season is in danger of adding up to little after their four-game losing streak. If Daunte can stop his inferno of takeaways, however, a home date against the Lions (3-7, 3rd North Division)' offense will be a much-needed reprieve for their struggling defense. Vikings 34, Lions 21.
New Orleans at Philadelphia. There hasn't been much media buzz about Donovan McNabb and the Eagles after the aftermath of Rush Limbaugh's lip disservice. Now they've quietly won six in a row and finally broke out for a blowout win last week. The NFC's most dangerous team will continue to get better on offense and healthier on defense this week, which all will be too much for the inconsistent Saints (5-5, 2nd South Division) to handle. Eagles 23, Saints 17.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (3-7, 4th East Division). Primer main man Chad Pennington isn't just the Jets' best pocket pilot -- he's a flying ace, and Santana Moss can be his wingman anytime. This game's other former Marshall marksman, Byron Leftwich, is a top gun in training, but sometimes he still misfires, putting the rock in enemy hands. The difference in passing games means the skywriting says J-E-T-S, not JAG. Jets 27, Jaguars (2-8, 4th South Division) 20.
New England at Houston. Tony Banks has been money as David Carr's top reserve this season, but he will have trouble cashing out vs. the Patriots' consistent complex coverage. The Pats have played their best against the league's best teams. They won't take Dom Capers' tough team lightly because they are working toward a return trip to Reliant Stadium in February. Patriots 23, Texans (4-6, 3rd South Division) 19.
Indianapolis at Buffalo. Drew Bledsoe couldn't do much last week despite the strong running of Travis Henry, and now with Henry nursing a fractured right fibula, the Bills (4-6, 3rd East Division) won't be able to take full advantage of a vulnerable Colts (8-2, 1st South Division) front seven. One of those seven, Dwight Freeney, will wreak havoc on the sack-friendly Bledsoe all game long. As for Peyton Manning, he will spread the ball around again to dissect a good pass defense. Colts 21, Bills 16.
St. Louis at Arizona. The Rams almost stumbled at Chicago last week, and they can't afford to let their guard down in the desert this week, where Tempe's team already has surprised Green Bay, San Francisco and Cincinnati. The combination of Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk will help them pull ahead; their turnovers and special teams coverage woes will make this game closer than it should be. Rams 24, Cardinals (3-7, 4th West Division) 21.
Cincinnati at San Diego. Although it's bad times for Keyshawn, his cousin Chad is having fun as the first-place Bengals (do not adjust your monitor) are starting to explode on offense and jell on defense under Marvin Lewis. Here's my guarantee (and a prayer for two of my fantasy teams): The Chargers (2-8, 4th West Division)' young cornerbacks will have a hard time hangin' with Chad in his return to SoCal, so he'll find the end zone twice against a San Diego pass defense that has given up 22 such catches this season. Bengals 27, Chargers 20.
Tennessee at Atlanta. Sporting News cover subject Steve McNair (check out the fine piece by Paul Attner in this week's issue) will cause plenty of headaches for the league's worst defense with his arm and his feet. The Falcons (2-8, 4th South Division) only wish they had such a playmaking quarterback who could inspire their whole team -- oh, well, let's hope Michael Vick gets back to being healthy and dazzles us again, sooner rather than later. Titans (8-2, 2nd South Division) 30, Falcons 14.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 11 record straight up: 11-5 (Beat that, AFC North champ)
Week 11 record vs. the spread: 8-8 (The actual AFC North champ)
Season record straight up: 100-60 (But don't bet a C-note on it)
Season record vs. the spread: 75-84 (Fodder for a VH1 special)
http://www.foxsports.com/content/view?contentId=1861922
Strength of schedule and the quality of opponents also vary greatly in the NFL, from each division to the next. The first-place and last-place schedule now affects only two games.
The difference is, NCAA Division I-A college football has 117 teams, and most teams play only 12 of them. In the NFL, every team plays 13 of 32 teams. That's why playoffs work for "us" and don't work for "them."
Just for punts, passes and kicks, here would be my top-12 NFL "SBCS" (the "S" stands for Super) heading into Week 12:
1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Tennessee
4. Carolina
5. Indianapolis
6. Dallas
7. Philadelphia
8. Seattle
9. St. Louis
10. Minnesota
11. Denver
12. Miami
GAME OF THE WEEK
San Francisco vs. Green Bay. OK, both teams are only 5-5 and need to have a strong stretch run to have a shot at the playoffs, but I have loved this matchup as a must-watch in its recent history. It's still a big game, only in a different sense. The Packers (5-5, 2nd North Division) have crept up to one game behind the Vikings (6-4, 1st North Division) in the NFC North, and the Seahawks (7-3, 1st West Division) and Rams (7-3, 2nd West Division) can both hear the rejuvenated 49ers (5-5, 3rd West Division) knocking in the NFC West.
The 49ers have found new life thanks to the play of Tim Rattay, who is calmly executing what Dennis Erickson wanted to do with his offense -- throw long downfield to set up the short running game. Jeff Garcia is more of a mad scrambler, who worked to get rid of the ball quickly to whoever was open, not necessarily Terrell Owens. Rattay, a prolific college passer, stays poised in the pocket and throws a better deep ball, much to Owens' delight.
The Packers also have a quarterback who can make some throws. When they win, it seems as though Brett Favre has a modest game, with Ahman Green running them home (see Tampa Bay last week). Favre still can win a game for the Packers if they must air it out often, and his offensive line will give him plenty of chances to do so against the frequently blitzing 49ers.
Look for an exciting game, considering the Packers' defense also is vulnerable -- it will have a hard time containing both Owens and Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow on the ground. The Packers have surprisingly struggled at Lambeau Field (2-3) this season, but the tundra will become only more frozen with each remaining week, and Green's speed and Favre's arm will make the difference this week. Packers 24, 49ers 17.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAME OF THE WEEK
NY Giants (4-6, 3rd East Division) at Tampa Bay. Forget Keyshawn being gone. Has anyone found these teams' respective mojos? The Giants' vaunted offense has been daunted, and the Bucs' big-time defense is more talk than action. Injuries have been a factor for both teams, but unlike the Eagles (7-3, 2nd East Division) and Patriots (8-2, 1st East Division), neither team has been able to overcome.
The only significance this Monday nighter might have is Tiki and Ronde Barber getting plenty of face time. Like the Barbers and those Coors Light gals, these teams are identical twins -- in the fact that they were once promising Super Bowl contenders that are now scratching for survival.
The Bucs' awesome sack streak came to an end last week, so they will be itching to go after one of the league's shakiest offensive lines. Kerry Collins has been interception-prone when throwing often in coverage, which plays right into the hands of the Bucs' cover 2. Also look for new Bucs starting wideout Joe Jurevicius to bust out healthy against his former team. Buccaneers (4-6, 3rd South Division) 20, Giants 13.
FOX OF THE WEEK
Carolina at Dallas. What were you expecting here, the name of Lisa Guerrero? (Besides, she no longer is affiliated with Fox Sports) No, this categorical tribute to the website where this column appears refers to the Panthers (8-2, 1st South Division)' John Fox, who has been, dare I say, Parcellsian with his coaching this season.
For those of you who missed Carolina's 8-2 start, it goes like this: Run the ball with Stephen Davis, make the most of scoring opportunities, play great defense. Parcells used a same philosophy to take Super Bowl 25.
The old Quincy Carter has reappeared, thanks in part to playing some tough defenses in recent weeks, including last week's shutout at New England. The Panthers' pass rush will be relentless against him, and Davis should set up John Kasay just enough times to let the visitors grind out one by a field goal. Panthers 13, Cowboys (7-3, 1st East Division) 10.
SPURRIER OF THE WEEK
Washington at Miami. The plus for Ball Coach is that he gets to coach another game in Florida this week. The minus is that it isn't in Gainesville against Vanderbilt.
Credit him for handing off the play-calling duties on offense, which has seen relatively good success the past two weeks. The problem is, he still has a nondescript running game and his team's run defense isn't much better.
The Dolphins (6-4, 2nd East Division) got Ricky Williams back on track last week, and they will pound him away on another Sunday night (remember that Buffalo game?). Patrick Ramsey is getting more banged-up with every game, and he will have a tough time making plays against Miami's consistent pass rush and tough secondary. Dolphins 23, Redskins (4-6, 4th East Division) 19.
REMATCH OF THE WEEK
Oakland at Kansas City. The Raiders (3-7, 3rd West Division) made things interesting in the teams' Week 7 Monday night meeting, as Tim Brown came up one yard short of the goal line as time expired in the Chiefs (9-1, 1st West Division)' 17-10 win. Of course, Marques Tuiasosopo threw the pass to Brown, and now he's out for the season, along with Rich Gannon.
Rick Mirer is left as the No. 1 QB, which is exactly why the Raiders have turned to a power running game with Tyrone Wheatley to carry their offense. Following what the Bengals (5-5, 1st North Division)' Rudi Johnson did, Wheatley can help the Raiders stay with their archrivals by just pounding the ball straight ahead.
The Chiefs aren't a perfect team -- both in terms of record and strengths/weaknesses. They will, however, refocus and rebound after their disappointing all-around performance at Cincy and complete a season sweep of Oakland. Chiefs 28, Raiders 20.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh at Cleveland. It's ironic that these cities known for gritty blue-collar work ethic have professional football teams that now are enamored with the glamour of the pass.
I've been waiting for the Browns (4-6, 3rd North Division) to make the stat sheet pretty with Kelly Holcomb throwing to Quincy Morgan, Dennis Northcutt and Andre' Davis, and they finally delivered their most complete performance last week. Granted, that was Arizona and this is Pittsburgh, but the current Steel Curtain has been an invisible wall of late.
Tommy Maddox throwing to Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El hasn't been as exciting as we all thought this season, leaving the team at 3-7 -- which is amazingly only two games short of the AFC North lead. The Steelers (3-7, 4th North Division) still can make a run at it with three division games left. Of course, they need to start that run sometime. If they don't win, however, this is the last time I give them the benefit of everyone else's doubt. Steelers 27, Browns 26.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Seattle over Baltimore. This is the mildest of mild upsets, but considering the way the 'Hawks have played on the road in places other than Arizona this season, this would be a huge accomplishment. To be the better birds in this pivotal clash of teams clinging to first place, they will need more consistent play from their wide receivers.
Jamal Lewis still is plowing through run defenses, but his recent case of fumble-itis has hampered a Ravens (5-5, 2nd North Division) offense that has limited passing potential. Todd Heap's banged-up knee and rookie quarterback Kyle Boller being lost for the season has made things worse.
Brian Billick has coached and succeeded through worse, and will keep feeding the ball to Lewis and rely on his defense to win games. Mike Holmgren needs to get his team better prepared for the road, and I just think this is the game in which Matt Hasselbeck will turn around his misfortunes away from Seattle.
Lewis will get his 100 yards, but Hasselbeck just needs to make one or two big plays to get his team on the sunny side of the scoreboard. Seahawks 17, Ravens 14.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Denver over Chicago. What a difference a Jake makes. The Broncos (6-4, 2nd West Division) called in a healthy Plummer to repair their clogged-up offense last week, and he responded. His favorite target, ageless wonder Shannon Sharpe, went off for three scores, further cementing his place as the most successful tight end in league history.
I had questions about the Broncos' prospects this season, but most of them have been answered thanks to Plummer's revitalization and the team's resiliency to stay in playoff position despite a rash of injuries. They are focused and ready to make a run, and will finish a mile high above their Sunday visitors. Broncos 31, Bears (3-7, 4th North Division) 13.
REST OF THE WEEK
Detroit at Minnesota. Steve Mariucci is making the most of his injury-filled roster, which, unfortunately for him, doesn't amount to much. The Vikings' once 6-0 season is in danger of adding up to little after their four-game losing streak. If Daunte can stop his inferno of takeaways, however, a home date against the Lions (3-7, 3rd North Division)' offense will be a much-needed reprieve for their struggling defense. Vikings 34, Lions 21.
New Orleans at Philadelphia. There hasn't been much media buzz about Donovan McNabb and the Eagles after the aftermath of Rush Limbaugh's lip disservice. Now they've quietly won six in a row and finally broke out for a blowout win last week. The NFC's most dangerous team will continue to get better on offense and healthier on defense this week, which all will be too much for the inconsistent Saints (5-5, 2nd South Division) to handle. Eagles 23, Saints 17.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (3-7, 4th East Division). Primer main man Chad Pennington isn't just the Jets' best pocket pilot -- he's a flying ace, and Santana Moss can be his wingman anytime. This game's other former Marshall marksman, Byron Leftwich, is a top gun in training, but sometimes he still misfires, putting the rock in enemy hands. The difference in passing games means the skywriting says J-E-T-S, not JAG. Jets 27, Jaguars (2-8, 4th South Division) 20.
New England at Houston. Tony Banks has been money as David Carr's top reserve this season, but he will have trouble cashing out vs. the Patriots' consistent complex coverage. The Pats have played their best against the league's best teams. They won't take Dom Capers' tough team lightly because they are working toward a return trip to Reliant Stadium in February. Patriots 23, Texans (4-6, 3rd South Division) 19.
Indianapolis at Buffalo. Drew Bledsoe couldn't do much last week despite the strong running of Travis Henry, and now with Henry nursing a fractured right fibula, the Bills (4-6, 3rd East Division) won't be able to take full advantage of a vulnerable Colts (8-2, 1st South Division) front seven. One of those seven, Dwight Freeney, will wreak havoc on the sack-friendly Bledsoe all game long. As for Peyton Manning, he will spread the ball around again to dissect a good pass defense. Colts 21, Bills 16.
St. Louis at Arizona. The Rams almost stumbled at Chicago last week, and they can't afford to let their guard down in the desert this week, where Tempe's team already has surprised Green Bay, San Francisco and Cincinnati. The combination of Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk will help them pull ahead; their turnovers and special teams coverage woes will make this game closer than it should be. Rams 24, Cardinals (3-7, 4th West Division) 21.
Cincinnati at San Diego. Although it's bad times for Keyshawn, his cousin Chad is having fun as the first-place Bengals (do not adjust your monitor) are starting to explode on offense and jell on defense under Marvin Lewis. Here's my guarantee (and a prayer for two of my fantasy teams): The Chargers (2-8, 4th West Division)' young cornerbacks will have a hard time hangin' with Chad in his return to SoCal, so he'll find the end zone twice against a San Diego pass defense that has given up 22 such catches this season. Bengals 27, Chargers 20.
Tennessee at Atlanta. Sporting News cover subject Steve McNair (check out the fine piece by Paul Attner in this week's issue) will cause plenty of headaches for the league's worst defense with his arm and his feet. The Falcons (2-8, 4th South Division) only wish they had such a playmaking quarterback who could inspire their whole team -- oh, well, let's hope Michael Vick gets back to being healthy and dazzles us again, sooner rather than later. Titans (8-2, 2nd South Division) 30, Falcons 14.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 11 record straight up: 11-5 (Beat that, AFC North champ)
Week 11 record vs. the spread: 8-8 (The actual AFC North champ)
Season record straight up: 100-60 (But don't bet a C-note on it)
Season record vs. the spread: 75-84 (Fodder for a VH1 special)
http://www.foxsports.com/content/view?contentId=1861922
